Estably Blog | Stock markets
US election result:
What it means for private investors in Europe
Published on 06.02.2025
Some celebrate him, others fear him – Donald Trump is returning as US President. And the markets are reacting with enthusiasm. Three months after the 2024 election, US indices such as the S&P 500 are hitting new records. Is Trump’s comeback a stroke of luck for investors? Find out how his re-election is moving the markets – and which strategies now offer the best opportunities.
The most important facts in brief:
- the leading US stock index S&P 500 has risen by around 5.55% since November 2024
- Mass deportations, military operations and import tariffs to make “America great again”
- 43% of US citizens expect growth, 87% of Europeans expect negative consequences
- Over 500 billion US dollars to be invested in the tech industry
- USD/EUR parity will be reached in 2025, after which Trump will give investors in US equities a further tailwind
The new Trump era is producing both winners and losers. Although the inauguration of the 47th US president was only a few weeks ago, the first, largely positive effects for investors are already apparent. Thanks to the appreciation of the US dollar and Trump’s protectionist measures, US stocks are currently doing particularly well. Numerous decrees are intended to boost the US economy.
It remains to be seen what long-term consequences Trump’s second term in office will have for the global economy. In this article, we take a look at his political agenda and highlight the opportunities and risks it holds for European investors. We also give you valuable tips on how you can benefit from the political situation in the USA right now.
Contents
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1. The election result and its immediate effects
Contrary to the pessimistic predictions of many media outlets, who thought he would win by a narrow margin at best, Donald Trump won the election in November 2024 more clearly than expected. With 312 votes to 226, he beat Kamala Harris (now sworn in as Vice President) quite convincingly. He would have only needed the required 270 votes of the 538 electors to enter the White House. The reasons for the surprising outcome of the election include the primaries and the decisions of the individual states, in which Trump was able to prevail against other presidential candidates. The Republicans also secured majorities in both chambers of Congress – the Senate and the House of Representatives – over the Democrats. This now enables President Trump to implement his political agenda more effectively.
Trump therefore caused a real sensation with his inauguration on the traditional Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025. Instead of celebrating extensively, he decided to get straight down to work on this day. And so, in his Oval Office, he signed more than a dozen different decrees to deregulate the economy, most of which are presidential decrees that the US President can have implemented without the approval of Congress.
And how did the markets react? Much more positively than expected! Read on to find out how stock markets and the economy have reacted to Trump so far.
1.1 This is how the stock markets have reacted to Donald Trump so far
The pre-election dates for the 2024 presidential election already created a positive mood on the stock markets. Immediately after the results of the 2024 presidential election, the best-known US indices rose, sometimes sharply. The stock market continued to be extremely optimistic following Donald Trump’s re-inauguration. And in Europe, the reaction was even more positive, with growth expectations being particularly pronounced there too.
1.1.1 US markets (as at 05.02.2025)
While the S&P 500 rose from 5,712 to 6,029 points (i.e. by around 5.55%), the Dow Jones rose from 41,763 to 44,545 points (i.e. by around 6.66%). In our view, the overall price gains very clearly reflect the confidence of US investors in Trump’s economic policy, which is seen as conducive to economic growth.
1.1.2 European indices (as at 05.02.2025)
The European markets reacted even more strongly. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose from 4,852 to 5,256 points (by around 8.33%) and the DAX even went from 19,147 to 21,535 points (which corresponds to an impressive increase of around 12.47%). Investors in Europe are therefore also hoping that Trump’s re-election will provide positive impetus for global trade and the European economy.
1.2 Effects on the EUR/USD exchange rate trend
Expectations regarding his trade policy, particularly with regard to tariffs, are causing the dollar to rise, but this may well be beneficial for investors. Investors who bet on the dollar could benefit from a further appreciation, especially if interest rates in the US rise and the economy is additionally boosted by Trump’s measures. Over the past two months, the US dollar has increasingly moved closer to parity with the euro. However, analysts predict that the dollar will continue to gain in value until the end of 2025, with a possible rise to values between 1.04 and 1.08 euros per US dollar.
1.3 Effects on individual sectors
Donald Trump is planning far-reaching deregulation to revitalize the US economy and promote innovation. The infrastructure, manufacturing, technology (especially AI and data centers) and consumer goods sectors will be the main beneficiaries of his measures. Tax incentives and the expansion of digital infrastructures should encourage companies to become more efficient and increase competitiveness. Investors should therefore primarily invest in US stocks in these sectors in order to benefit from the long-term growth potential.
Our personal tip for you:
“For investors in US stocks, the current political and economic developments could represent a promising opportunity which, in combination with a strong US dollar, could offer investors additional opportunities for returns. A focus on US companies in sectors supported by Trump therefore offers great potential for long-term growth. And we at Estably naturally provide you with the right investment strategies for this. Find out more from us!”
Estably Asset Management Ltd
Schaanerstrasse 29
9490 Vaduz
Liechtenstein
Curious about personalised advice and tailor-made strategies for your individual situation? Get your free and non-binding initial consultation with us now!
2 The political agenda after the presidential election
“Less state, more entrepreneurial freedom!”
With this guiding principle, Trump wants to get the ailing US economy back on track for growth. His agenda is as ambitious as it is controversial: massive tax cuts, new trade agreements and the targeted reduction of strict environmental regulations are intended to ease the burden on companies and encourage investment. With his decrees signed almost daily, Trump is causing ongoing turbulence in the global economy. Each new decree has the potential to move markets, reorganize trade relations and fundamentally change the course of economic policy. But what impact do the measures really have? An overview of all the key economic policy changes shows what markets, companies and investors need to prepare for now.
2.1 Tax policy and corporate profits
Companies will benefit in particular from Trump’s catalog of measures. The abundance of plans here is particularly confusing, but the following three changes in particular stand out:
- Reduction of corporate tax: corporate tax is to be reduced from 21 to 15 percent in order to increase US competitiveness and encourage investment.
- Introduction of accelerated depreciation: Companies will soon be able to write off investments in machinery and equipment much faster, resulting in tax savings on corporate profits.
- Repatriation of foreign earnings: Profits earned by US companies abroad can be repatriated to the US at a reduced tax rate to provide capital for domestic investment.
Citizens are also to benefit from reduced tax rates of 12, 25 and 35 percent. This will reduce the tax burden for private individuals just as effectively, which will benefit the middle class in particular.
2.2 Trade policy between the USA and the EU
Trump is clearly pursuing a protectionist course here and wants to benefit the domestic economy in particular.
"America First!"
And this has far-reaching consequences, particularly for transatlantic economic relations. Trump is planning to renegotiate existing trade agreements in order to favor US companies and will impose new tariffs on European exports. The German automotive and European agricultural sectors will be particularly affected. There is talk of punitive tariffs of 60 to 200% in some cases (however, these are country-specific and are intended to hit countries such as China in particular).
2.3 Environmental and energy policy
Donald Trump does not see renewable energies, electric cars and climate protection as priorities. Instead, the new president is focusing on the following points:
- Reducing subsidies for renewable energies and e-mobility
- Rolling back strict environmental regulations and CO₂ emission targets
- Cutting the budget of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
- Stopping and reclaiming climate funding
- A renewed withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement has already taken place
- However, the already approved expansion of renewable energies is not to be halted
Our personal tip for you:
“The discussion about Trump’s political agenda is often more heated than it should be. In fact, there are many indications that the planned measures will lead to economic growth rather than the feared chaos. You should therefore now focus on sectors that will benefit from US growth. What’s more, now is the time: Diversify broadly and buy stable stocks! We will be happy to show you how you can do this cost-effectively and efficiently via Estably!
Estably Asset Management Ltd
Schaanerstrasse 29
9490 Vaduz
Liechtenstein
Curious about personalised advice and tailor-made strategies for your individual situation? Get your free and non-binding initial consultation with us now!
3. opportunities & risks for European investors after the US election in 2024
The US election in 2024 will have a decisive impact not only on the United States, but also on European investors. We have therefore summarized the biggest opportunities and risks for you:
- Stock market rally: Historically, markets often experience a phase of recovery or growth after US elections, especially when pro-business measures are announced.
- Post-election years: In the years following a US election, US indices often underperform. One of the main reasons for this is that new political measures need time to take effect. In addition, price-driven election years are often followed by market consolidation as investors’ initial euphoria wanes.
- Tech and energy opportunities: Future US policy will strongly influence investments in technology, renewable energies and fossil fuels. This will create attractive sectors for European investors.
- Geopolitical uncertainties: Changes in US foreign policy harbor the risk of trade conflicts with China or the EU, which could affect European companies in particular.
- Regulatory changes: If sustainability requirements in the US are weakened, US companies with lower sustainability standards could appear more competitive than European companies.
Our personal tip for you:
“Investors can now, for example, focus on broadly diversified US investments to reduce sector and cluster risks – for example via the Best of Funds strategy, in which we select funds according to strict value criteria. An intelligent strategy to benefit from market opportunities and minimize risks. The funds are predominantly held in US dollars, which could mean an additional return boost for 2025. Please feel free to talk to us about your individual investment goals!”
Estably Vermögensverwaltung AG
Schaanerstrasse 29
9490 Vaduz
Liechtenstein
Curious about personalized advice and tailor-made strategies for your individual situation? Get your free and non-binding initial consultation with us now!
4 What are currently the best strategies for private investors in Europe?
Back in 2020, stock market legend Warren Buffett underlined the extraordinary resilience of the US economy and the impressive performance of its stock market over decades.
"Never bet against America"
Despite the current political turbulence, there is no substance to a bet against America. The long-term upward trend in US stocks is unbroken and is likely to strengthen further in 2025/26. In any case, US stocks dominate most equity and investment funds – but with Estably you benefit from an exclusive, actively managed fund selection based on the proven value strategies of renowned investors.
Which investment strategy best suits your individual goals in this market environment? We have selected our two most exclusive investment products for you – and are now presenting them to you in detail.
4.1 Investing in US individual stocks with our “Modern Value” strategy
With our “Modern Value” strategy, you make targeted investments in hand-picked individual shares of first-class companies – in line with the proven principles of stock market legend Warren Buffett. Thanks to a strong focus on the US market, you benefit optimally from current economic developments: robust companies, technological leaders and growth opportunities in one of the world’s most dynamic markets. Benefit from the following advantages:
- High-quality share selection from a minimum investment of just 20,000 euros
- 25-35 top companies in the portfolio
- Long-term growth with substance
- low costs of between 0.79 and 1.19 percent p.a. plus 0.30 percent bank charges
- Fair, performance-based fees amounting to 10 percent of performance
- All-round carefree package (portfolio management, advice, rebalancing, custody account, tax reports)
Take the opportunity now and invest in the future with Modern Value 20, 40, 60, 80 or 100 (the number in the product name indicates the percentage of equities in relation to bonds with a first-class credit rating).
4.2 Taking a long-term perspective with our successful “Best of Funds” strategy
In contrast, our “Best of Funds” strategy offers you access to the world’s most successful value and quality investing funds – without high minimum investment amounts or initial charges. In addition to hand-picked individual stocks, we invest specifically in holding companies with a strong US focus.
As a leading financial market, the USA offers outstanding investment opportunities and regulatory stability. Thanks to institutional tranches, you benefit from lower costs and broad diversification. Choose from five portfolios and determine your own growth opportunities. Maximize your assets with an investment approach based on the strategies of star investors:
- Exclusive access to first-class funds and individual shares from a minimum investment of just 20,000 euros
- Broad diversification for lower fluctuations
also very low costs due to institutional tranches without issue surcharges (between 0.79 and 1.19 percent p.a. plus 0.30 percent bank charges and 0.50 to 0.80 percent product costs) - Fair, performance-related fees amounting to 10 percent of performance
- Flexible portfolio selection (here, too, you can choose from five strategies according to your risk profile)
- All-round service (portfolio management, advice, rebalancing, custody account, tax reports)
Our “Best of Funds” strategy is also available in the variants 20/80, 40/60, 60/40, 80/20 and 100/0. These figures indicate the ratio of equity funds to bond funds within the respective portfolio. Choose the right strategy for your individual investment goals from our Best of Funds 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 portfolio solutions.
4.3 Use professional advice from Estably
At Estably, thanks to our innovative portfolio management, you not only enjoy digital efficiency, but also first-class, personal advice. Our experts are always on hand to help you tailor your investment strategy to your goals. Transparency, individual support and the advantages of Liechtenstein as a financial center make us a strong partner for you. Let us convince you of our expertise and find out all about the unbeatable services of your friendly asset management company in the Principality – make an appointment for your personal consultation today!
5. conclusion: After the US election, benefit now from Estably's customized investment strategies with a US focus
The US election result offers a promising outlook for European investors. While Trump’s pro-business policies open up many opportunities, targeted investments with our tailor-made strategies from the “Modern Value” and “Best of Funds” series can particularly benefit from the positive developments. The combination of robust US equities and a long-term perspective will allow your portfolio to flourish.
Take advantage of Estably’s expertise to develop your tailor-made investment strategies for wealth accumulation, tax optimization, retirement planning and joint and corporate portfolios. Based in Vaduz in the Principality of Liechtenstein, we offer you access to first-class investment products and benefit from one of the most stable and flexible financial centers in the world. Recognized in prestigious publications such as Forbes, Focus Money and wallstreet:online, we offer both private and institutional investors a wide range of exclusive financial solutions. Let’s have a no-obligation discussion to find out how we can best secure your assets for the future!
Let us advise you on the topics of finance, asset management, capital investment and much more!
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About Estably
Estably is the first digital asset management company from Liechtenstein to offer first-class wealth management through a blend of technology and human investment expertise. Thanks to the portfolio managers’ many years of experience in the field of value investing, the aim is to achieve above-average returns. The aim is to make professional asset management, which was previously exclusively available to major investors, accessible to everyone – conveniently, transparently and profitably.
